The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a long-standing pro-Israel lobbying group, is facing a significant decline in political influence following last week's midterm elections. Al-Monitor reported that candidates who previously courted AIPAC's support are now finding it to be a liability in many races. This shift is attributed to deepening voter disillusionment regarding US-Israeli relations, driven by concerns over civilian casualties in Gaza and the costs of the recent Iran war.
In the Michigan Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated AIPAC-supported candidates in both the primary and general election, becoming the first Muslim senator. Al-Monitor noted that the tens of millions of dollars spent by the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project failed to stop El-Sayed and instead helped amplify his messaging. El-Sayed publicly acknowledged this dynamic in his victory speech, thanking AIPAC for the opportunity to defeat them twice. Similarly, James Talarico won the Texas Senate seat with a platform emphasizing distance from AIPAC, stating early in his campaign that he had never taken money from the group and intended to continue that practice.
Polling data cited by Al-Monitor indicates a sharp drop in public opinion. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs reported that the average favorability score for Israel among Americans fell to 44 this year, a record low compared to 58 in 2022. Among Democrats, the decline was more pronounced, with favorability dropping from 52 to 30. Dina Smeltz, a managing director at the council, told AFP that Democrats have seen a significant tanking in support for Israel. This shift is not limited to the left; President Donald Trump announced on Fox & Friends that the US would end a major annual aid package to Israel, a move previously demanded by left-wing politicians.
Despite these challenges, Al-Monitor suggests that pro-Israel lobbying will not disappear entirely. The group faces competition from left-leaning organizations like J Street and the American Priorities super PAC. Additionally, potential political changes in Israel, such as the possible decline of Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, could help AIPAC regain stability. As Smeltz noted, the organization has been around for a long time and possesses substantial financial resources, suggesting it may adapt to the new political reality.