Türkiye has released its National Energy Plan 2040, outlining a strategic transition from coal to cleaner energy sources as it prepares to host the COP31 climate change summit. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar presented the plan in Istanbul, stating that the strategy aims to achieve a "paradigm shift" in energy usage to support the country's pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The announcement comes as world leaders are scheduled to arrive in the Mediterranean city of Antalya next week, placing increased scrutiny on Türkiye’s current reliance on fossil fuels.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Türkiye is currently Europe’s largest coal power generator, with coal accounting for 33% of electricity generation last year. The ministry reported that solar and wind energy sources contributed nearly 23% to the grid. Under the new plan, the share of solar and wind energy is expected to more than quadruple over the next 13 years. Bayraktar stated that the goal is to reach 36% electrification by 2040, which would reduce emissions by 40%. This transition includes a significant expansion of electric vehicles, with the number of electric cars on the road projected to rise from approximately 500,000 to 20 million.
The strategy requires a total investment of $500 billion over the next 13 years. Approximately $210 billion is expected to come from Turkish public sector companies, with the remainder sought from foreign investors. Bayraktar emphasized that achieving carbon neutrality would require global financial responsibility. He noted that while the shift aims for a just transition for communities reliant on coal mining, the country will still depend on natural gas for supply security. Production from Black Sea gas reserves is set to double to 7.5 billion cubic meters annually, and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant is nearing operation.
Despite these ambitious targets, external factors continue to complicate progress. Bayraktar described the current energy market environment as turbulent, citing sanctions related to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. The Climate Action Tracker currently rates Türkiye’s climate policies as "critically insufficient" relative to the 1.5-degree Celsius target of the Paris Agreement. As COP31 approaches, the minister’s key message to international delegates will focus on adopting responsive and realistic policies to achieve carbon neutrality.