Statistics South Africa reported that the annual consumer price index climbed to 4.5% in September 2026, up from 4.4% in August. The monthly increase stood at 0.4%, marking the second consecutive month of rising prices. Transport emerged as the primary driver, with annual rates in this sector jumping to 10.8% from 8.8% in August. This category contributed 1.5 percentage points to the total, representing roughly a third of the headline figure. Housing and utilities added 1.3 percentage points, while insurance and financial services contributed 0.6 percentage points.
Nedbank’s Weekly Monitor commentary attributed the transport surge to a 5.3% month-on-month rise in petrol prices, which followed a 14.1% jump in global oil costs and a 1.7% depreciation of the rand against the US dollar. The bank projected that fuel inflation would expand from 20% to approximately 27%. Core inflation is also expected to strengthen, moving from 4.0% to 4.4%, as the indirect impacts of elevated fuel expenses spread across a wider array of products and services. This suggests mounting underlying price pressures despite the modest headline increase.
The September figure of 4.5% fell short of the 4.7% average forecast from economists polled by Reuters, according to Club of Mozambique. However, analysts anticipate a more pronounced increase in October, following a record-high surge in fuel prices. The central bank has hiked its policy rate twice since the Iran war began, including at its September meeting. Opinions are split on the mid-November decision. Nedbank’s Johannes Khosa predicts a further 25 basis point hike, whereas Bureau for Economic Research’s Lisette IJssel de Schepper argues for a pause, noting that core inflation remains relatively contained.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on the same day the data was published. Trade unions and political parties have urged the government to provide fuel price relief, similar to the levy reduction used between April and June. The September data highlights the continued exposure of the economy to global energy trends, with transport and housing remaining the dominant factors in the annual inflation rate.