The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has issued a warning that the 2026/2027 agricultural season in Mozambique faces significant challenges due to the combination of above-average temperatures and expected rainfall deficits. According to a regional bulletin reviewed by Lusa, these conditions are occurring under the influence of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is strengthening and expected to persist into early 2027. The report notes that the probability of a strong El Niño episode remaining active is above 80%, a pattern typically linked to lower-than-usual precipitation in southern Africa.
FEWS NET explains that higher temperatures will increase evapotranspiration and crop water requirements, thereby amplifying the impact of any delayed onset of the rainy season or prolonged dry spells. The analysis indicates that these factors could negatively affect crops, pastures, and water resources in several parts of the region. The risks are particularly significant for areas projected to receive less rain than usual during the peak wet months of December 2026 through February 2027.
Despite these regional risks, current vegetation conditions in Mozambique vary significantly by location. The report states that conditions in the south, including southern Mozambique, are well above average, largely due to heavier-than-normal precipitation recorded in the previous year. Soil moisture in parts of central and southern Mozambique also remains above average, reflecting the effects of the previous good agricultural season. However, the centre and north of the country present a less favourable picture, with below-average vegetation conditions and a likely subsequent deterioration if forecasts of below-normal rainfall materialise.
Mozambican authorities have already issued two public warnings this month regarding heatwaves in the south, where temperatures have exceeded 40 degrees Celsius. The FEWS NET bulletin also highlights improving conditions in key water infrastructure, specifically noting that the Cahora Bassa reservoir saw its storage levels rise substantially over the course of 2026. This new analysis complements an October report by the same network, which projected that roughly 1.5 to 2 million people in the country might need immediate food support by April 2027, assuming good harvests and stable prices offset the expected seasonal difficulties.