Madagascar marked the first anniversary of its political transition on Saturday, one year after military leader Michael Randrianirina assumed power following youth-led protests that removed elected president Andry Rajoelina. According to AllAfrica, the new administration was sworn in on 17 October 2025 after months of demonstrations demanding improvements in water, electricity, and justice. While the change in leadership was swift, the extent of institutional reform has remained a subject of debate among local political observers.
Over the past twelve months, Russian influence on the island has expanded significantly. An investigation by All Eyes On Wagner, a project tracking Russian security operations, documented the rapid development of military and economic networks in the months following Randrianirina's inauguration. The report notes that just four days after taking office, the new president met the Russian ambassador in Antananarivo. This initial engagement was followed by the arrival of a delegation led by Russian intelligence general Andrey Averyanov in December 2025, who is identified as the suspected head of the paramilitary group that succeeded the Wagner group.
The expansion of Moscow's presence included the delivery of helicopters, tanks, and drones, which were presented as donations. Researchers also identified the role of African Initiative, a state-linked news agency, in shaping public opinion through media partnerships and sporting events. Furthermore, the investigation highlights the strategic interest in the northern harbor of Antsiranana. Located at the entrance to the Mozambique Channel, the site offers access to key shipping routes. In May, the two nations agreed to a joint economic zone, with fuel storage as its initial project, a development researchers compare to Russia's naval base in Tartus, Syria.
Despite these external shifts, domestic political challenges persist. Political scientist Ketakandriana Rafitoson, vice-chair of Transparency International, told RFI that while the political vocabulary has changed, underlying practices of power concentration and weak checks and balances remain. She described the situation as a "real political revolution" where the institutional refoundation remains largely unfinished. The structural changes sought by the original demonstrators have yet to fully materialize, according to the report. Young activists who drove the initial uprising have expressed frustration, noting that while they established themselves as a political force, they have not yet gained equivalent influence over national decision-making.